Nearly Right

Green parties across Europe struggle in government whilst opposition counterparts gain ground

The crisis facing Germany's Greens reflects a broader challenge for environmental politics in coalition-dependent democracies

The photograph captured everything wrong with Germany's Green party in 2024. Felix Banaszak, the party's 35-year-old co-leader, sat carefully on a train floor during his August "listening tour" of working-class regions—despite having unlimited access to first-class seats. The staged humility drew mockery, but it revealed something more troubling: a party that commanded nearly 30% support in 2021 polls now desperately trying to reconnect with voters whilst languishing around 10%.

Banaszak's awkward performance symbolises a crisis affecting green parties across Europe. The German Greens aren't suffering alone—they're part of a systematic pattern where environmental parties face electoral punishment for governing whilst their opposition counterparts thrive. Across multiple European democracies in 2024, the same story played out: power corrupts green politics.

The irony cuts deep. Green parties prove most vulnerable precisely when they achieve their ultimate goal of wielding governmental influence.

A European pattern emerges

The 2024 electoral map tells a brutally consistent story. According to analysis by the Heinrich Böll Stiftung, green parties in government coalitions suffered heavy losses whilst those in opposition gained seats or held steady.

Germany's Alliance 90/The Greens crashed from 21 to 12 European Parliament seats. Austria's Die Grünen tumbled to 13.9% after years as junior partners with the centre-right, losing their place in the next government. Ireland's Green Party endured perhaps the most spectacular collapse, surrendering 11 of their 12 parliamentary seats after voters punished their coalition government.

Opposition green parties painted a starkly different picture. Croatia's Možemo doubled their seats from 5 to 10, boosting their vote share from 7.0% to 9.1%. Britain's Greens quadrupled their parliamentary representation despite first-past-the-post constraints, jumping from 1 to 4 seats with 6.4% of the vote.

This divergence isn't coincidence. Academic research by Professor Thomas Poguntke of Heinrich-Heine University, a leading authority on green party politics, shows that "whatever was left of grass-roots democracy was hard to sustain under pressures of participation in national government."

The evidence points to something more troubling than electoral cycles: a structural flaw in how green parties interact with coalition democracy.

The coalition trap that snares green parties

Green parties face what political scientists call a "coalition trap"—institutional pressures that systematically undermine the very qualities that brought them electoral success.

Traditional parties survive on tribal loyalty built over generations. Green parties depend on ideological commitment. Their supporters vote for transformative change on climate policy. Coalition politics demands precisely the compromises that betray this trust.

Germany's experience since 2021 illustrates the trap perfectly. The Greens achieved genuine policy victories in government—advancing renewable energy targets, maintaining nuclear phase-out, positioning Germany as a climate leader. Yet these successes came wrapped in politically toxic compromises.

Economics Minister Robert Habeck, once hailed as a pragmatic rising star, faced environmental activists' fury when he kept coal plants running to replace Russian energy after the Ukraine invasion. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock supported military aid to Ukraine—strategically sound but conflicting with the party's pacifist roots. Both decisions were arguably correct. Both damaged the Greens politically.

The party's generational schism reflects these impossible choices. Jette Nietzard, the 24-year-old Green Youth leader who wore anti-police slogans and mused about armed "resistance" to far-right coalitions, represented everything Banaszak now wants to escape. Her departure cleared space for moderation, but at what cost?

Banaszak's strategy of creating "clear blue water" between Greens and the radical left makes electoral sense—polling shows Die Linke competing directly for the same voters. Yet this shift risks alienating precisely the committed environmental activists who built the party's foundation.

Forty years of the same struggle

This tension predates current crises by decades. German Greens have wrestled with ideological purity versus political effectiveness since their 1980 founding, split between pragmatic "Realos" and fundamentalist "Fundis."

The pattern extends across Europe. Political scientist Ferdinand Müller-Rommel's research on European green parties shows government participation consistently triggers internal warfare. Finland's Greens faced similar challenges when they became Europe's first environmental party in national government in 1995. Austria's Greens endured factional disputes throughout their conservative coalition.

Research by environmental economist Aurélien Saussay at the London School of Economics reveals why green parties struggle uniquely. Their policy agenda demands long-term thinking and international cooperation. Coalition politics requires short-term compromises and national trade-offs. The contradiction is structural, not accidental.

Thomas Poguntke's theoretical work demonstrates how green parties undergo systematic transformation when entering government. They abandon participatory decision-making for hierarchical efficiency. They trade grassroots energy for technocratic competence. This metamorphosis alienates original supporters without attracting traditional party loyalists.

Some green leaders have navigated these pressures successfully. Winfried Kretschmann has governed Baden-Württemberg since 2011 in coalition with Christian Democrats, maintaining popularity even among conservative voters. His success suggests green parties can find stable governing arrangements—but only by fundamentally altering their political DNA.

What this means for democratic politics

The green party crisis carries implications far beyond environmental policy. Their struggle tests whether transformative politics can survive coalition democracy's institutional pressures.

Green parties once proved democratic systems could evolve. Their journey from protest to parliament demonstrated institutional flexibility. Their current difficulties suggest something darker: coalition systems may be inherently hostile to parties demanding fundamental change.

The timing amplifies these concerns. As Germany's far-right Alternative for Deutschland exploits polarisation, green weakness undermines the democratic centre when it needs strengthening most. If environmental parties retreat from coalition politics, climate policy becomes hostage to traditional parties with weaker commitments.

The broader European pattern suggests this transcends German peculiarities. It represents a structural challenge for environmental politics across coalition-dependent democracies. If green parties cannot govern without destroying their electoral foundations, democracy's capacity to address long-term challenges like climate change comes into question.

Yet opposition green parties' 2024 successes demonstrate continued public appetite for environmental politics. The challenge isn't demand—it's translating support into sustainable governance without triggering the institutional pressures that systematically erode green electoral strength.

The German Greens' next chapter will test whether environmental parties can solve this fundamental equation. Their fate will determine not just green politics' future in Europe's largest economy, but the viability of transformative democratic politics more broadly.

Can green parties mature from protest movements to establishment forces without losing their transformative essence? The answer may decide whether democracy can adapt quickly enough to meet existential challenges. The stakes extend well beyond party politics to the heart of governance itself.

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