Nearly Right

Young Europeans abandon democracy as housing costs soar and employment stagnates

Twenty-one percent now favour authoritarian rule as institutional promises collapse across the continent

Europe's democratic future is slipping away, one young person at a time.

For the first time in modern history, a generation of Europeans trusts democratic institutions less than their parents and grandparents. This isn't teenage rebellion or political immaturity—it's a calculated response to institutional failure. When democracy promises prosperity but delivers precarity, when it pledges opportunity but provides only temporary contracts and unaffordable housing, rational people start looking for alternatives.

The numbers are stark. The Young Europe 2025 survey reveals that fewer than six in ten young Europeans believe democracy is the best form of government. One in five would support authoritarian rule under certain circumstances. Only 6% think their political system actually works.

These aren't marginal figures from a fringe poll. This YouGov survey for the TUI Foundation interviewed 6,703 Europeans aged 16-26 across Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Greece, Poland, and the UK. What they found should terrify anyone who believes in democratic governance: Europe's next generation is walking away from the system that built the continent's prosperity.

The collapse isn't uniform. Young Germans still back democracy at 71%, whilst Polish youth support has crashed to just 48%. In Italy, nearly one quarter would embrace authoritarian rule if circumstances demanded it. These variations matter—they prove that democratic decline isn't inevitable but reflects specific institutional choices and failures.

The promise that broke

Europe once prided itself on democratic exceptionalism. Younger generations traditionally showed more faith in institutions than their elders, creating a virtuous cycle of democratic renewal. That pattern has shattered completely.

Today's young Europeans have watched democracy fail to deliver on its most basic promises. Consider what this generation has experienced: they've seen their incomes fall further during recessions than any other age group, watched housing costs spiral beyond reach, and found themselves trapped in a gig economy that offers neither security nor advancement.

The data tells a devastating story. According to the UN World Social Report 2025, over a quarter of those born in the 1990s report having no trust at all in their governments—compared to just 17% of those over 65. Patricia Justino, who co-authored the report, describes "overlapping layers of insecurity, inequality, and distrust" that are "eroding the social fabric that binds communities together".

This isn't abstract social science. It's the lived reality of a generation that has seen democracy's central promise—that hard work and education lead to prosperity—exposed as hollow. Young Europeans today earn less than their parents did at the same age, despite being better educated. They face housing costs that consume half their income and employment contracts that can be terminated without notice.

When institutions fail, trust dies

The mechanics of democratic collapse are grimly predictable. When 61% of young Europeans worry about finding adequate housing in the next decade, and when nearly half work on temporary contracts with no job security, democratic institutions lose their legitimacy.

Greece illustrates this dynamic with brutal clarity. Youth unemployment reaches 27.2%—the highest in the EU. Young Greeks saw their incomes fall by 40% during the recession, more than any other age group. During COVID-19, 30% of young Greeks lost their jobs—far ahead of any other European country. The result? Greek youth show among the lowest satisfaction with democracy in Europe.

This pattern repeats across the continent. Countries with higher youth unemployment, unaffordable housing, and employment precarity show correspondingly lower democratic support among young people. The correlation isn't coincidental—it reflects institutional failure to address the economic foundations that make democratic participation meaningful.

Employment data exposes the scale of this failure. Whilst one in ten workers overall have temporary contracts, nearly one in two young Europeans face this employment precarity. They cannot plan families, buy homes, or build careers when their jobs can vanish at a moment's notice. Democracy's promise of stability through civic engagement becomes meaningless when basic economic security remains elusive.

Li Junhua, UN Under-Secretary General for Economic and Social Affairs, captures the crisis precisely: "Current institutions and policy frameworks are being outpaced by societal transformations. We face a vicious cycle of insecurity, low trust, and shrinking policy space."

The compound crisis effect

What makes this democratic decline uniquely dangerous is its compound nature. Previous generations faced single challenges—a recession, a war, a political crisis. Today's young Europeans confront multiple simultaneous catastrophes that reinforce each other.

They've lived through the 2008 financial crisis, the eurozone meltdown, the migration crisis, Brexit, COVID-19, climate emergency, and war in Ukraine. Each crisis has demonstrated institutional inadequacy. More damaging still, each has shown how European institutions protect older, wealthier populations whilst imposing costs on younger, more vulnerable ones.

Consider the generational arithmetic. Pension spending remains high across Europe whilst programmes young people depend on—unemployment insurance, housing support, childcare—face constant cuts. European institutions impose austerity on southern European countries, hitting young people hardest, whilst protecting northern European interests. Brexit strips young Britons of European opportunities they never voted to lose.

This compound effect explains why traditional policy responses fail. Addressing youth unemployment without tackling housing costs leaves young people economically insecure. Improving employment without ensuring contract stability maintains precarity. Focusing on education whilst graduate wages stagnate does nothing to restore faith in meritocratic promises.

Research across seven European countries reveals alarming variations in democratic resilience. When faced with choices between democratic and authoritarian candidates, Swedish voters showed strongest resistance to undemocratic appeals. Spanish and Ukrainian electorates proved more tolerant of authoritarian behaviour. These differences highlight how institutional quality shapes citizen responses to democratic breakdown.

What young Europeans actually want

The crucial point is this: young Europeans aren't rejecting democracy because they prefer authoritarianism. They're rejecting a version of democracy that feels rigged against them.

This distinction matters enormously. When young people say they'd consider authoritarian alternatives, they're not expressing ideological preference for strongman rule. They're saying democratic institutions have failed to deliver basic economic security, and they're willing to try something—anything—else.

The solution isn't complicated in theory, though it requires political courage in practice. Democracy must prove it can deliver what young people need: affordable housing, stable employment, environmental action, and genuine political voice.

Universal social protection offers the most direct path forward. Where public services are reliable and accessible, trust in institutions remains higher. Social protection signals that the state works for everyone, not just pensioners and property owners. But protection must be genuinely universal—not tilted toward older generations who vote more reliably.

Housing policy demands urgent attention. The disconnect between housing costs and incomes has reached crisis proportions across European cities. Without coordinated action to increase affordable housing and regulate speculative investment, an entire generation will remain economically dependent well into adulthood.

Labour market reform must tackle employment precarity directly. The normalisation of temporary contracts may serve employer flexibility, but it destroys the economic security that makes democratic participation worthwhile. Young people need employment relationships they can build lives around, not gigs they can be dismissed from without explanation.

The stakes couldn't be higher

What happens when an entire generation loses faith in democratic institutions? We're finding out in real time.

Young people become more susceptible to authoritarian appeals, less likely to participate in civic life, more inclined to seek radical alternatives to existing arrangements. We've seen this pattern in Hungary and Poland, where democratic institutions have been systematically captured as public trust eroded.

But the variation across European countries proves that decline isn't inevitable. Countries with stronger social protection, stable employment, affordable housing, and responsive governance maintain higher democratic legitimacy among youth. This points toward solutions rather than inevitable collapse.

The challenge requires immediate, coordinated action across multiple domains. Addressing youth unemployment without housing costs, or housing without employment stability, will prove insufficient. The compound nature of the crisis demands compound solutions.

Most importantly, European leaders must recognise what young people are actually asking for. They don't want to overthrow democratic institutions—they want those institutions to work as advertised. They want to be taken seriously, heard, respected, and given a genuine stake in their futures.

The data shows that when democratic institutions deliver economic security, housing opportunity, stable employment, and real political voice, young people support democracy as strongly as any generation. When institutions fail these tests, support predictably collapses.

Europe's democratic future hangs on whether its institutions can adapt quickly enough to restore the basic promises that once made democracy attractive. Young Europeans have sent a clear message: prove democracy works for everyone, or lose the next generation entirely.

The window for such proof is narrowing rapidly. But it hasn't closed yet.

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